Australian job ads pull back in March after February rebound

The ANZ-Indeed Australian Job Ads series dropped 3.1% month-on-month in March, following a 3.2% rise in February.

On an annual basis, ads were down 0.6%, though they remain 13.7% above the 2010–19 average. The trend series edged up 0.3% for the month but slipped 0.3% in year-on-year terms.

ANZ Economist Aaron Luk said the March decline followed the unemployment rate rising to 4.3% in February 2026, and noted the minutes from the RBA's March Monetary Policy Board meeting flagged that a prolonged Middle East conflict could weigh on labour demand.

"We expect the labour market to soften in the coming year as a result of rate hikes and softening economic activity," Luk said, forecasting the unemployment rate to lift to around 4.6% by Q1 2027 before easing slightly to 4.5% by year-end.

ANZ projects GDP growth to remain below potential at 1.3% year-on-year to Q4 2026 and 1.8% to Q4 2027.

Indeed Senior Economist Callam Pickering described the retreat as broad-based, with falls recorded across almost every state and territory.

New South Wales, Queensland and Victoria registered the steepest declines, though Pickering noted job opportunities remain well above late-2025 levels.

The monthly pullback was concentrated in education, nursing, personal care and retail. That was enough to offset gains in project management and engineering roles, which have been supported by graduate hiring.

Job ads for logistics and transport sectors were mostly unchanged, despite exposure to the Middle East conflict.

Separately, ABS Job Vacancies rose 2.7% in the three months to February, driven by a 3.2% quarterly rise in the private sector, which is consistent with the pick-up in the ANZ-Indeed series over that period.

The next release, covering April 2026 data, is expected on Monday, 4 May.